Europe is facing a critical moment. As threats continue to mount along its borders and political winds shift across the Atlantic, the continent is being forced to ask itself an uncomfortable question: can it defend itself without depending so heavily on the United States? With the war in Ukraine showing no sign of ending and American political support growing uncertain, Europe’s future as a cohesive security actor hangs in the balance.

Defense Ambitions Meet Political Reality

In March 2024, the European Commission introduced a bold initiative - the European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) - alongside the European Defence Investment Programme. These documents outline a clear ambition: to ensure that at least half of European defense procurement comes from within the EU by the end of this decade. A year later, this ambition was reinforced by the “Rearm Europe” white paper, which sought to transform the European defense industrial base and better prepare the continent for prolonged security challenges.

The rationale is straightforward: the United States, which has long underwritten European security through NATO, may no longer be a reliable backstop. Especially with the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency, many European leaders fear that the transatlantic relationship could shift dramatically - or even unravel. In response, the EU is attempting to rewire its defense thinking from the ground up.

The five pillars of “Rearm Europe”

At the heart of this shift is the ReArm Europe plan, built around five proposed mechanisms. While still in proposal form, they lay the groundwork for a reimagined European defense ecosystem.

1. Loosening Budget Rules

One of the boldest suggestions is to temporarily relax the EU’s fiscal constraints on member states - rules designed to prevent excessive national debt. By easing these limitations, countries could invest more heavily in defense without running afoul of EU financial regulations. The plan estimates that this could unlock around €650 billion in national-level spending over four years.

2. Offering EU Defense Loans

ReArm proposes creating a centralized EU lending mechanism, enabling governments to access loans for defense projects, particularly those developed jointly with other member states. With a projected envelope of €150 billion, the goal is to spur collaborative defense efforts and overcome the inefficiencies of fragmented procurement.

3. A Common Fund for Joint Purchases

The plan also outlines the need for a new common fund, separate from existing EU budgets, to directly finance the joint purchase of weapons and military equipment. This fund, although still undefined in terms of scale and source, would mark a major leap toward genuine defense integration.

4. Building the Defense Industrial Base

ReArm emphasizes the creation of a more self-sufficient defense industrial base within Europe. This includes supporting smaller and mid-sized defense firms, stimulating innovation, and ensuring that European manufacturers can meet the continent’s evolving military needs. Resilience is the keyword: a European defense system that can sustain itself even in prolonged crises.

5. Integrating Ukraine

Perhaps the most forward-looking component is the integration of Ukraine into the European defense structure. This goes beyond mere support in its ongoing war with Russia. The white paper envisions Ukraine as a long-term contributor to European security and a partner in future industrial and strategic collaboration.

The gap between vision and implementation

Although ReArm sets out an ambitious and coherent roadmap, major hurdles remain. The proposals have not yet been codified into legislation, and serious political divisions within the EU could derail them. France has championed a more autonomous European defense identity for years, but countries like Germany and many in Eastern Europe remain deeply tied to NATO and wary of duplicating efforts.

In parallel, there’s the challenge of industrial capacity. Even with financing mechanisms in place, the actual ramp-up of production capabilities across Europe is a long-term endeavor. Coordinating dozens of defense firms across national lines, managing supply chains, and harmonizing standards are not tasks that can be resolved overnight.

Leadership vacuum: who will take charge?

What’s most striking about the current moment is the absence of clear leadership. For all the Commission’s efforts, Brussels lacks the power to enforce most of the proposed changes. Member states still control their defense budgets and procurement policies. The Franco-German engine, traditionally a driver of European integration, is sputtering in the face of divergent priorities.

Moreover, the upcoming European elections and a looming political shift in the U.S. add uncertainty. If the next American administration takes a more isolationist stance, Europe could be forced to accelerate its defense plans - but without a unified strategy, even urgency may not be enough.

A moment of strategic reckoning

Europe’s journey toward a stronger, more independent defense identity has always been complicated. But never before has the need felt so immediate - or the path so unclear. The war in Ukraine has laid bare the continent’s vulnerabilities, while internal divisions continue to hamper collective action.

ReArm Europe may well represent a turning point, but only if words are swiftly matched by actions. Without real commitments from member states, coordinated leadership, and a willingness to embrace shared risk, the white paper risks joining a long list of well-intentioned but toothless European strategies.

The coming months will determine whether Europe is truly ready to take charge of its own security - or whether it remains content to outsource its future.


Sources

  1. European Commission, “European Defence Industrial Strategy,” March 2024.
  2. European Commission, “ReArm Europe White Paper,” March 2025.
  3. Strategic Compass for Security and Defence – approved by the Council of the EU in March 2022.
  4. Statements and press materials by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, 2024–2025.